Sample reports

Five real ideas. Five brutal forecasts.

A peek at what the engine produces. Each one is a snapshot, the full reports go much deeper.

Consumer App

AI dating app for introverts

Proceed with changes
Top 3 risks
  1. 01Cold-start liquidity, too few introverts in any single city to spark matches in week one.
  2. 02Brand positioning collapses into 'just another dating app' the moment growth requires paid ads.
  3. 03Retention cliff after first awkward match, introverts churn silently rather than complain.
Survival route

Launch in one city, one demographic (e.g. London tech 25-34). Sell a guided 4-week 'first conversation' programme, not a swipe app. Charge from day one to filter for intent.

Run Your Own Failure Forecast
58
Survival
DTC / CPG

Hangover prevention gummy

Pivot
Top 3 risks
  1. 01Health claims you cannot legally make are the only claims that actually sell the product.
  2. 02Repeat purchase only happens after a heavy night, demand is spiky, irregular, hard to forecast.
  3. 03Amazon and TikTok are flooded with near-identical liver-support supplements with $4 COGS.
Survival route

Drop 'hangover' from the front of the brand. Reframe as a pre-night-out ritual sold in 4-packs at festivals, stag/hen events and corporate party suppliers. Win the moment, not the morning after.

Run Your Own Failure Forecast
41
Survival
Marketplace

Queue Jump restaurant app

Pause
Top 3 risks
  1. 01Restaurants have zero incentive to sell line-skips that anger their loyal walk-in regulars.
  2. 02Chicken-and-egg: diners won't open the app without restaurants; restaurants won't sign without diners.
  3. 03Unit economics break, a $3 skip fee can't fund both sales reps and paid user acquisition.
Survival route

Stop pitching restaurants. Pitch event venues, theme parks and food halls where queues are the product owner's problem. Sell a B2B SaaS dashboard, not a consumer marketplace.

Run Your Own Failure Forecast
36
Survival
Vertical SaaS

Pub profit leak SaaS

Proceed
Top 3 risks
  1. 01Independent landlords are notoriously slow to adopt software and allergic to monthly fees.
  2. 02Pulling data from EPOS, stock and rota systems requires brittle integrations you don't control.
  3. 03Pub closures across the UK shrink the addressable market every quarter you delay.
Survival route

Sell the first 20 customers a done-for-you profit audit at £499, not a SaaS subscription. Use the audits to prove ROI in pounds, then upsell the dashboard to keep the leak closed.

Run Your Own Failure Forecast
74
Survival
Mobile Game

$1 winner-takes-prize mobile game

Kill
Top 3 risks
  1. 01Real-money prize mechanics trigger gambling regulation in most of the US, UK and EU, licensing eats the margin.
  2. 02Apple and Google reject paid-entry prize apps under their gambling and sweepstakes policies.
  3. 03Without a huge prize pool you cannot acquire users; without users you cannot fund a huge prize pool.
Survival route

Kill the cash prize. Rebuild as a free-to-enter skill tournament with branded sponsor prizes and pay-to-customise cosmetics. Sponsors fund the prize pool; players fund the brand.

Run Your Own Failure Forecast
22
Survival

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